Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Ron Paul Gaining Ground in Iowa & New Hampshire

Ron Paul has pulled within 1 point of the lead in Iowa according to a new poll from Public Policy Polling. He has taken a large chunk of Newt Gingrich's support and now trails him 22%-21% only a week after it looked like Gingrich would keep building on his Iowa lead.  Ron Paul has also cut into Gingrich's support in New Hampshire according to a new poll from Rasmussen Report.  Romney still leads comfortably in New Hampshire with 33% support, but Ron Paul is pulling 18% support, good for third place, only 4 points behind Newt Gingrich.

Why the change? Well, Ron Paul's consistent constitutional message is resonating, as is his plan for massive spending cuts.  You also can't discount the fact that, as some of my prior posts discuss, many conservatives are very wary of Gingrich.  Ron Paul has launched two scathing attack ads against Newt Gingrich, and it is reasonable to think that these are playing a big role in the decrease of Newt's support in Iowa and New Hampshire.

"Serial Hypocrisy"

"Selling Access"

It will be interesting to see if, as happened to Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry and Herman Cain before him, Newt Gingrich's support will continue to erode as people look more closely at him and learn more about his personality, his views and his record.  If that does happen, and race comes down to Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, it will make for a very interesting primary season.

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